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A b s t r a c t . An original development is described in this work of the forecasting of so-called rare events concerning the agro-ecological systems. Under defi nition “rare” it is necessary to understand events which take place during some observed process, time intervals between them are so great that it is possible to consider that they practically do not infl uence each other. The beginning of the rare events can be called as a “bifurcation point” of the observed process. Both the multistage procedure of the forecasting based on principles of inductive modeling and the selection criterion of the best forecasting models are described.

Keywords: inductive modeling, algorithm of modeling, criterion of models selection, agro-ecological system, forecasting, bifurcation points, rare events.

The algorithm of bifurcation points forecasting in the analitical researches of complex agro-ecological systems

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