I. Shostak, M. Danova

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Abstract. The analysis of implementation technology foresight in various countries is carried out which showed that for today foresight is used as the system instrument of formation the future allowing to consider changes in all spheres of public life: science and technologies, economy, social, public relations, culture. Types and structural elements of technology foresight are separated. The necessity of further research the problem associated with increasing the efficiency of foresight-projects through its informatization is shown. The aim of the article is to describe process of synthesis the model of informatization as technologies foresight in general, and its specific variants (foresight-project). Informative and formal statements of problems synthesis system model (SM) choice of priorities in the implementation of national foresight-researches are given. Approach to construction of SM technology foresight in the form of the two-level hierarchical system consisting of the functional and methodical levels is offered. At that the functional level includes a set of types and purposes of technology foresight, and methodical – reflects a transition way from input elements to output. For a further concretization of SM, taking into account the selected properties of discrecity and determinancy, the mathematical apparatus of the automata theory is used. In this case the system is represented in the form of automaton which processes the discrete information and changes its internal states only in admissible timepoints. For computer implementation of model technology foresight is supposed to use network models which, in general, provide adequacy of the formal representation of foresight-researches. Reasonability of use the apparatus of Joiner-networks (JN) defines a connectivity and directivity of transmission of output results as input alphabets is shown.

Keywords: technology foresight, scientific and technical development, system model, national foresightresearches, types of foresight, structural elements of foresight.


an international quarterly journal on economics of technology and modelling processes